In 2006, Thomas Schaller wrote about the emerging Democratic majorities in the West. States like CO, NM, and NV, once deeply Republican Red were turning Blue or at least purple, and states like AZ, MT, and the Dakotas could soon follow. Democrats, said Schaller, should push into these areas. He was right and Democrats wisely followed his advice. CO is now a deeply blue-ish purple state as is NM. NV is more reddish purple, but is getting blue-er. There’s been little progress in SD, but MT and ND have given us some Democratic governors and senators even while remaining Republican at the POTUS level. And AZ and even AK are now light pink and seem on the tipping point of “going blue” while TX remains tantalizingly at Democratic finger tips, but keeps slipping out of reach even though, on paper, it should be at least as blue-ish purple as CO by now.
But Schaller’s book outlining this fruitful area for Democratic gain was called, Whistling Past Dixie: How Democrats Can Win Without the South. When I read this in 2006, I thought that it was a recipe for short-term gain and long-term disaster. Yes, I said, Democrats should work hard to flip seats and states in the Mountain West. But even as far back as 2006 one could see demographic growth in Dixie, the Southeast. People were moving from the Northeast and upper Midwest both to the Southwest and to the Southeast. Especially obvious was the reversal of the Great Migration—with African Americans moving from the North back to the South where the majority of African Americans have lived since the Transatlantic Slave Trade began. Democrats, I thought, should be working for the new possibilities in the West, while also working to reverse Republican gains in the South. No one listened. They followed Schaller’s advice and made gains in ‘06 and ‘08 by winning the West, but flipping VA and NC in ‘08 should have told them not to write off the South while they did it. It didn’t.
Now, Denocrats are awakening to the possibilities of gains in the South, even the Deep South, as diaries like this one make clear—and as last year’s victories in VA and AL demonstrated fully. But a commenter to that diary voiced a worry that I also share: that Democrats lose the vote-rich Midwest Rustbelt (PA, MI, OH, WI, IA, to list states Trump won in 2016, and possibly MN and even IL in the future) faster than they can make up for it with gains in the South—or even the South and West together.
We need to be able to do both: work on the South and West while regaining the Rustbelt. We need to do this not only for electoral reasons, but also because it’s the right thing to do. The adoption of a true 50 state strategy is about offense and keeping the GOPers on defense, but it is also about ridding ourselves of the mindset that ANY part of this country can be “written off.” The people in every area of the United States need progressive policies and the GOPers won’t give it to them. We have to run and win everywhere because we are ONE nation and harm to anyplace harms us all. We’re all connected: The Rustbelt, even with new “right to work” laws, is the last place of union strength. If we’re going to end this new gilded age and rebuild the middle class, we need the unions. We need to expand unions into the South and West, not lose them in the Rustbelt.
If we are going to end white supremacy, we will need to show that Black Lives Matter everywhere—in Atlanta and Chicago, Memphis and Baltimore. We will have to stop the demonization of Latinos and immigrants everywhere, too.
It’s also the same thing with whether we should turn out a base of women (especially African American women and Latinas) and minorities or work for the votes of disaffected white working class (not the hard core racists, but the desperate ones who ignored Drumpf’s racism out of hope for better times). Even as the country becomes majority-minority, whites still make up the largest racial group and will form a plurality for a very long time. “Populist” con-men like Drumpf can still win with an almost all-white vote. We can’t win without at least 25-30% of that vote nationwide. Depending on the part of the nation, we will need more or less white folks. Dems and progressives must be truly a “rainbow coalition” (with apologies to Jesse Jackson and his vision which was so far ahead of its time), but that coalition must include at least a percentage of the white working class. But spending all our time trying to woo WWC voters back while ignoring the abilities, needs, and priorities of our base of women and minorities (especially black and brown women) is equally defeating—and equally wrong.
If ever there were a time to learn to multi-task, my fellow progressive Dems, this is it. It’s not economic justice OR social justice, but both. It’s not the South or the Rustbelt or the Western Sunbelt, it’s competing everywhere. It’s not fearing to nominate women because a woman lost in 2016. It’s not seeking out white male faces as “safe,” but trying to GOTV among persons of color. We have to do it all and we have to be rooted in a vision of the common good FOR ALL. Or else any victories will be short-term.
The GOP plays the long game and have ever since The Powell Memo in '71. We have to play both short and long. We need victories in the short term because there are crises now and people are hurting now. And also because the context in the age of Drumpf has created unique opportunities for hope and momentum that we dare not pass up. But we also have to be playing the long game, too if we hope to save the republic and the planet. We want a society of liberty, equality, justice, peace, and ecological integrity and care. We can’t afford to work at only one or a few of those things.
Roll up our sleeves, folks. Walk, chew the gum, march, knock on doors, etc. It’s time—and the race we run will be a supermarathon relay race (handing off batons to future generations), with only a few sprints along the way.